‘White Collar’ vs. ‘Blue Collar’

The problem with AI and jobs isn't what you think: the more you earn, the greater your risk

Many people have never worried about technology's intrusion into the job market… because the ones losing their jobs were other people. But

AI has changed everything: no one is safe

Contributed by C. Otto

Apocalyptics and enthusiasts: two camps without data

In the recurring debate over artificial intelligence and its impact on employment, there are two opposing camps: the apocalyptics and the enthusiasts.

The apocalyptics claim that our entire labor fabric is in danger and that something must therefore be done: limit the use of AI, make the companies that use it pay more taxes, introduce a basic income… The enthusiasts, for their part, live in the most absolute optimism. Not only does the power of AI fascinate them, but they also insist that you can't hold back the tide, that technological disruption is nothing new, that it has been happening since the Industrial Revolution, that it will eliminate some jobs, but create others, that labor will always be needed to run the robots… Needless to say, neither camp backs up its opinion with data or rigorous reports. It is, basically, an exercise of faith in their own positions.

There is another element that characterizes these two groups: their position in the labor market. The apocalyptics are apocalyptic because they believe their jobs will be the first to disappear, while the enthusiasts are delighted… because the ones who may end up on the street are not them, but others. It is, in fact, a fairly common confrontation over the last few centuries: blue collar professionals, who represent physical, manual, low-skilled work (with lower pay); against white collar workers, associated with intellectual jobs that require high qualifications (with higher pay). In short: the classic factory worker versus the trendy office type. The one who always sees his job at risk versus the one who doesn't feel even the slightest fear. And, ultimately, the one who earns the least versus the one who earns the most.

If you think AI doesn't affect you, think again…

However, AI has wrecked this whole preestablished scheme. If you work in front of a computer and have always looked down a little on the factory worker because he didn't study what you did, what will happen when you discover that not only his job is in danger, but yours too? What will happen when you see that your technological fascination was due to the fact that your salary wasn't at risk… until now? And that is the true revolution of AI compared with other revolutions: for the first time, technology threatens every kind of job: skilled and unskilled alike.

What the figures for Spain and the EU show

That is what, at least, the various reports show that lay out the extent to which AI is being applied in sectors that had never replaced their employees with machines. According to Spain's National Statistics Institute (INE), 12.4% of Spanish companies with ten or more employees used AI in the first quarter of 2024. That is an increase of 2.8 percentage points over 2023. As we can see, there are prominent sectors tied to blue collar workers, but the presence of the services sector also makes us think of the impact on white collar workers.

The figures for our country are similar to those of our neighbors. In fact, Eurostat shows that we are just above the EU average, with the Nordic countries recording greater business adoption of this technology.

And if we look more closely, which types of jobs does the use of AI especially apply to? Eurostat makes it clear: it is not only that white collar workers are also affected, but that, in fact, they are the ones most affected. As we can see, both in Spain and in the countries around us, jobs related to communication, science and technology, and administration have a much greater incidence than others such as manufacturing, transportation, retail, hospitality or construction.

… and this has only just begun

That is the present, but the immediate future points in an identical direction, according to the studies that have tried to assess which jobs are in danger in this new scenario. A McKinsey analysis shows that 43% of the companies that use AI will reduce their headcount over the next three years, compared with 30% that will see no change and 12% that don't know what will happen. Barely 15% expect to increase their workforce because of the use of artificial intelligence.

World Bank, ILO and OpenAI: the most skilled are the most exposed

The biggest blow comes from the World Bank and the International Labour Organization (ILO), which in 2024 published an extensive study on how AI will affect employment around the world. As we can see in the chart below, jobs tied to some level of academic qualification are the most exposed.

In case any doubt remains, the analysis also distinguishes the impact of AI by the income level of workers. And here there is no room for doubt: AI will not affect 82.4% of low-income workers, while for high earners, that figure drops to 57.3%.

And if the World Bank and ILO figures scare many people, OpenAI's scare them even more. In 2023, the company that developed ChatGPT published a report that, among other things, analyzed which professions would be most affected by the use of its technology. The numbers speak for themselves: once again, the most exposed jobs will not be the least skilled or the worst paid, precisely, but quite the opposite: the most skilled and best paid.

There are other sectors, traditionally tied to human contact and with very high academic qualifications, that could also start to worry even though they do not currently occupy the top positions in the rankings. A clear example is medicine. In March 2023, the European Commission conducted a survey asking citizens about the application of AI in medical processes. The result? 76% of Europeans were in favor of this use. In Spain the figure rose to 82%, while no country fell below 66%.

Generative AI and white collar professionals

And we are talking about artificial intelligence in general, but the big one on its way is generative AI. McKinsey's analysis predicts that this technology will not only reduce the number of employees in a substantial share of companies, but also that many of these job losses will occur in activities associated with white collar professionals such as human resources, marketing, sales, finance or product and service development. We are, in short, facing an unprecedented scenario. Historically, the great industrial and technological revolutions have mainly affected the least skilled and worst paid jobs, leaving professionals of an apparently higher rank unscathed. But AI has changed everything: for the first time, those who thought they were safe from any change are beginning to see the wolf at the door. So now you know: if you tend to look down on someone who doesn't have your training and earns much less money, consider that perhaps the next person affected by AI will not be him, but you.

Original source: El Confidencial · Carlos Otto