A macro analysis of thousands of predictions reveals that Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is much closer than expected, challenging previous estimates that placed it around 2060

For years, the possibility that artificial intelligence (AI) could surpass human cognitive capacity has been a topic of speculation and debate.
Steve Wozniak claims that AI is not truly intelligent: “it doesn’t think, it just takes things from other places and organizes them.”
Now, a new macro analysis conducted by AIMultiple—according to Esquire magazine—based on 8,590 predictions from scientists, business leaders, and AI experts, suggests that the Singularity—the point at which machine intelligence surpasses human intelligence—could be much closer than expected.
While a decade ago it was estimated that Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) would arrive around 2060, some voices in the field now claim we could reach it in just one year.
The acceleration in the development of large language models (LLMs), the exponential growth of computing power, and the potential emergence of quantum computing have radically changed expectations about the future of AI.

A Shift in Predictions: From 2060 to an Imminent Future

The AIMultiple study analyzes how predictions regarding artificial intelligence and its ability to achieve AGI have evolved.
Traditionally, scientists have been more conservative in their estimates, while industry entrepreneurs have shown greater optimism.

In 2010, most experts predicted the arrival of Artificial General Intelligence by 2060.
Following advances in Artificial Intelligence over the last decade, more recent predictions point to 2040.
Industry leaders, such as the CEO of Anthropic, estimate that the Singularity could occur within 12 months.
The key to this progress lies in Moore’s Law, which states that computing power doubles every 18 months, accelerating the development of advanced algorithms.
However, some experts warn that Moore’s Law is reaching its limit, and that quantum computing could be the key to the next major leap forward.

An Inevitable Future or an Exaggeration?

Not all experts agree that the Singularity is imminent—or even possible. Figures like Yann LeCun, a pioneer of deep learning, argue that human intelligence is too complex and specialized to be fully replicated.
Some key objections include:

• Current Artificial Intelligence is based on patterns and calculations, but human intelligence includes factors such as intuition, creativity, and emotionality.
• Intelligence is not limited to mathematical logic; there are also interpersonal, intrapersonal, and existential forms of intelligence.
• Artificial Intelligence is a powerful tool, but not necessarily capable of generating autonomous discoveries without human intervention.

An example of this is AIMultiple’s argument, which notes that while AI may improve efficiency in scientific research, it still requires human judgment to direct knowledge.
“Even the best machine analyzing existing data might not be able to find a cure for cancer,” the report states.

The Impact of Artificial General Intelligence: Challenges and Opportunities

If AGI truly is near, the implications for society would be immense. From industry automation to rethinking the nature of work, education, and the economy, the arrival of an artificial intelligence capable of matching or surpassing human intelligence could represent the most significant technological change in history.
However, it also raises ethical, regulatory, and philosophical risks:

• Who will control an AI with superior capabilities to humans?
• Could AI develop its own goals, independent of human interests?
• Are we prepared for a world where machines make critical decisions in fields such as medicine, justice, or security?

Is the Future Already Here?

Although predictions about the Singularity vary, the central message is clear: AI is advancing at an unprecedented pace, and human society must prepare for its implications.
Whether Artificial General Intelligence develops in 50 years, 10 years, or just one year will depend on technological evolution and how humans choose to direct it.

But one thing is certain: the debate about the future of artificial intelligence is only just beginning…

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Mirko Racovsky is an Argentine journalist and narrator specializing in health, science, and wellness topics. He is the author of various articles in Infobae, where he addresses issues related to nutrition, sleep, psychology, and healthy habits with a clear and informative style. In addition, he works as a host and sports commentator at FM Santa María 91.3 in Campana, combining his journalistic work with radio broadcasting. His work is characterized by making scientific and medical information accessible and up to date for the general public.