Uruguay, a Country Facing Demographic Extinction
A COUNTRY WHOSE POPULATION IS DYING OUT
Uruguay will have 440,000 fewer inhabitants by 2070, a year in which older adults will outnumber children three to one: this is what the projections from the National Institute of Statistics say.
In the coming years, Montevideo will continue to lose population, Maldonado will have the highest population growth, and the ratio of working-age to inactive people will begin to even out. By 2070, there will be three older adults for every child.
Tomer Urwicz – El Observador, Montevideo
“When Uruguay plays, three million run.” Singer-songwriter Jaime Roos and lyricist Raúl Castro were ahead of their time. They wrote that line in 1994, never imagining that, years later, the National Institute of Statistics (INE) would confirm that this would be the projected population for the country in 2070.
Uruguay had that number of inhabitants (three million) when the civic-military government ended. The population grew until it peaked in 2020 (just over three and a half million). Since then, it has started to decline and, according to projections by demographers Amand Blanes and Mathías Nathan, the drop will become even steeper starting in 2045. In 2070—the final year covered by the projections—there will be about 440,000 fewer inhabitants than today.
Uruguay has experienced four consecutive years in which more people die than are born. And immigration is not moving the needle, as it barely offsets the number of Uruguayans leaving the country.
The reasons behind this phenomenon are not necessarily negative. The country has seen a significant drop in teenage pregnancies, which explains more than half of the “great decline” in fertility that began in Uruguay in 2016.
The COVID-19 pandemic, in that sense, merely accelerated a phenomenon that was already approaching: the increase in deaths in a society that—despite people living longer—is becoming increasingly older and therefore more likely to see a higher mortality rate.
Blanes and Nathan, hired by the INE to estimate and project the population based on the latest census results, are betting on a hypothesis that they believe is the most likely to occur: in the coming years there will be a “rebound effect,” and fertility will see a “slight recovery.”
What do they mean? Women are having children at later ages. But, as happened in Spain or the Nordic countries, it is likely that some of these women will still choose to have children—just later. In addition, public opinion surveys show that, for a large portion of Uruguayans, the ideal number of children remains two.
The rebound, if it happens, is expected to be slight. It would raise the total fertility rate by only a few tenths of a point, and the figure would remain well below replacement level (as demographers refer to the threshold at which a generation replaces itself).
This is not the only assumption made by the demographers. Uruguayans will live increasingly longer lives.
By 2070, for example, projections suggest that life expectancy at birth will be 82.5 years for men and 87.5 years for women.
Women’s life expectancy remains higher, but the gap is narrowing. Why? There are many possible explanations: from changing habits among men (who are taking better care of themselves) to the masculinization of aspects of women’s lives (a lifestyle more similar to what men had in a more patriarchal society).
In the event that life expectancy does not increase as much as projected (a lower longevity scenario), Uruguay’s population would decline even further (instead of losing about 440,000 by 2070, it would drop by around 550,000). If the opposite happens (greater longevity than projected), the population would still decline, but by 350,000 by that year.
Malthus’ law, formulated by the British economist of the same name, predicted that population would grow exponentially—faster than the resources humanity could produce. This idea haunted decision-makers for centuries.
Now, projections show that the population trajectory has shifted and begun to decline (which doesn’t mean extinction). The challenges are different now.
A Country of Older Adults
The equation is simple: fewer and fewer children, and people living longer. The result is an increasingly aged society. In Uruguay’s case, looking toward 2070, a very aged society.
If we average the ages of all the country’s inhabitants, today it is around 39 years old. In 2070, that average will rise to 50 years.
The more economic view of population trends raises red flags about the challenges such a major demographic transition poses. If in the short term there will be about 48 non-working-age people for every 100 of working age, by 2070 the ratio will be 79 inactive for every 100 active.
Add to that the challenge of who will care for an aging population, the increase in healthcare costs for increasingly older residents, the need to adapt infrastructure, and even the societal role assigned to older adults.
Uruguay’s Population Pyramid
In that sense, Uruguay’s population pyramid will bear little resemblance to the pyramids of Egypt, with a wide base that narrows as it rises. On the contrary, the base will be small and then widen: by 2070, one-third of the population will be over 65 years old, while children will make up around 11% (three times less).
This is not a uniquely Uruguayan phenomenon. The global population trend—especially in more developed countries—is moving in this direction.
The Emptying of Montevideo
Teachers always repeat it: “Montevideo’s macrocephalism.” It’s a way of summarizing the political, administrative, and population power held by Uruguay’s capital. But projections from the National Institute of Statistics show that the smallest department in area and largest in population continues to empty out.
In the next twenty years—a blink of an eye in historical terms—Montevideo will lose a tenth of its population: it will drop from about 1,288,788 to 1,146,239.
In that regard, the capital is the department that loses the most population, surpassed only (in relative terms) by Treinta y Tres (which will lose 11.5% over two decades).
Population decline will be the norm in 15 of the 19 departments, closely in line with what’s happening at the national level. But the remaining four departments will gain population due to internal migration.
“César Aguiar predicted it 30 years ago: we were on our way to having a coastal city stretching from the west of Montevideo to Punta del Este. So it’s not so much the emptying of Montevideo, but rather a new way of organizing the city that goes beyond the administrative boundaries we know,” demographer and economist Juan José Calvo had explained.
Maldonado will lead growth in relative terms. Canelones will lead in absolute numbers. San José and Rocha will also see population increases.
This reorganization of the population, which is also increasingly aging, brings new challenges: how many parliamentary representatives each department will have, how hospital and school infrastructure is structured, cultural offerings, transportation, and a long list of considerations for a society entering a new demographic phase.
El País of Uruguay
El País is one of Uruguay’s leading newspapers, founded in 1918. With a traditionally conservative editorial line and economically liberal stance, it is published in Montevideo and offers both national and international coverage. Its print edition is complemented by a digital platform that provides up-to-date news on politics, economy, society, sports, and culture.