The Ukraine challenge is accelerating, but it won’t be easy. A Russian victory will be counted as a win for China. The Middle East will very likely escalate into an expanded war against Iran. It’s difficult to expect changes in Venezuela, but Cuba may surprise, as could Bolivia, in a different way. Big questions remain for Mexico, and what about Bachelet in Chile?

• The recent attacks in the U.S. won’t necessarily define the coming year. Terrorism no longer has the same momentum; ISIS no longer exists, aside from factions that assume its name, and the New Orleans attacker was a lone wolf with potential mental health issues. However, this violence is part of today’s reality.

More certain is that there will be crucial changes in the two biggest ongoing wars: the Middle East and, more significantly, Ukraine. The key factor will be the magnitude of these changes.

In these three conflict zones, a trio of extreme figures will be at play simultaneously: Donald Trump, taking office on January 20; Benjamin Netanyahu, who has strengthened his position in Israel; and the autocrat Vladimir Putin, who marked 25 years in power at the end of this year.

It is highly likely that the Middle East crisis will escalate into an open war between Israel and the U.S. against Iran, aimed at dismantling its nuclear capabilities and potentially fracturing the ayatollah regime’s hierarchy. The theocracy is an armed minority, lacking popular support, plagued by unsolvable social conflicts, brutal repression, inflation, unemployment, and a lack of future prospects.

What is unlikely to happen is an Israeli push for full colonization of Palestinian territories, as some hardline ministers in Netanyahu’s government advocate. Trump will be less strict than Joe Biden on geopolitical limits, but the U.S. is allied with Saudi Arabia—the most influential power in the Arab world—which supports a two-state solution for the long-standing Middle East crisis.

This is not out of preference for the Palestinians, but because it is the only way to prevent an endless conflict that obstructs Arab nations’ relations with Israel. These are authoritarian regimes that do not want to fuel public anger. The numbers back up this realism: there are seven million Palestinian Arabs in these territories, two million of whom hold Israeli citizenship. The rest are spread across the occupied areas. Notably, before the war, the terrorist group Hamas had no more than 50,000 members.

In Israeli prisons sits Marwan Barghouti, “the most important prisoner in the world,” according to The Economist. This secular leader, respected across the Arab world, is seen as the key—much like Nelson Mandela was in South Africa—to a political resolution of the crisis. Washington is paying attention to this.

During his first term, Trump approved the colonization of Palestinian territories, a move considered illegal under international law. It is unclear whether he will do the same in a second term. Iran will likely be a shared target; the Palestinians may not.

Ukraine is a more complex challenge due to the war’s existential significance for the West. Trump repeatedly signaled to Putin during his campaign, but the close alliance between Russia and China remains an unavoidable obstacle.

A rushed show of support for Moscow’s autocrat could expose the new U.S. administration to political backlash, similar to what happened with the Afghanistan withdrawal. It would be perceived as a green light for Russia to rearm and continue its expansion. Above all, it would validate China’s bet—since before the invasion, Beijing pledged unconditional support to the Kremlin. A Russian victory in Ukraine would be seen in Beijing as a precedent for Taiwan and a Western defeat.

Outside of these scenarios, some questions arise:

• Will migrants be expelled from the U.S.? Yes, but at levels no higher than the record deportations under Biden.
• Will tariffs be imposed worldwide? Uncertain. Inflation in the U.S. could rise again this year, which could lead to higher interest rates, especially if tariffs increase and labor costs rise due to reduced immigration.

An interesting development: 2025 may bring more U.S. interest in Latin America than usual. One reason is China’s growing presence in strategic areas of the “Global South,” such as Panama, its new port in Chancay, Peru, and Brazil, its main Latin American trading partner. The new Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, is of Cuban descent—his background could influence U.S. policy.

Cuba, Bolivia, Venezuela…

It wouldn’t be surprising to see major developments in Cuba. The regime is disintegrating, unable to contain a crisis that has triggered the largest exodus in Cuban history. Biden, trying to win Florida voters, avoided restoring Obama’s thawing of U.S.-Cuba relations. Trump will surely further isolate the island, which has lost its symbolic significance even for its former allies. Change could come sooner than expected.

Bolivia will hold elections on August 17. The country is deeply divided by a power struggle between President Luis Arce, seeking reelection, and Evo Morales, who wants to return. The underlying crisis could propel an alternative figure who channels public anger and frustration. Keep an eye on Cochabamba’s conservative mayor, former army captain Manfred Reyes Villa.

Venezuela is a different story. Nicolás Maduro’s dictatorship, after the fraudulent election on July 28, has consolidated its grip on power. Soon, he will stage another sham inauguration, and neither the opposition nor the international community will stop it. This ongoing nightmare will continue, adding another two million Venezuelans to the 8.5 million who have already fled—an unprecedented regional exodus.

In November, Chile will hold a presidential election, and it’s unlikely that the current center-left experiment led by Gabriel Boric will get a second term. He has suffered two major defeats in trying to replace the dictatorship-era constitution. Right-wing candidates are gaining ground, but centrist figures, such as former president Michelle Bachelet, remain competitive. She denies any interest in running, but her popularity rivals that of the far-right leader José Antonio Kast, who won the first round against Boric in 2021.

Bolsonaro, Ecuador, and Mexico

In Brazil, 2025 will likely see former president Jair Bolsonaro jailed for his role in the coup attempt against Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva—not just for the January 8, 2023, attack on Brasília’s government buildings but also for earlier movements. His allies left behind extensive evidence, including audio recordings, of a plot to seize power and assassinate Lula. This was further exposed in December when General Walter Braga Netto, Bolsonaro’s former running mate and Defense Minister, was arrested.

In Ecuador’s February elections, incumbent Daniel Noboa is expected to retain power.

Mexico, on the other hand, remains an enigma. Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s populist government has left behind a ticking time bomb: a system allowing popular votes on judicial matters, which has weakened the rule of law in a country where drug cartels can fund any campaign.

Additionally, Mexico is in Trump’s crosshairs due to his tariff threats. He argues that Mexico exports to the U.S. what China can no longer send directly—though in reality, it is American companies operating in Asia that drive this trade.

These uncertainties have shaken the Mexican peso, leading to its worst depreciation in 18 years—a steep 23.3% drop. The new president, Claudia Sheinbaum, closely aligned with AMLO, has so far failed to stabilize the economy.

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